Catch the full episode:

Episode Overview

In this episode of the Duct Tape Marketing Podcast, host John Jantsch sits down with award-winning strategy consultant, speaker, and author Kyle Austin Young to explore his decision-making and goal-achievement framework called probability hacking. Kyle explains why traditional goal pursuits rooted in hustle, mindset, and positive thinking fall short and how identifying and solving for potential risks can dramatically shift your odds of success.

Guest Bio

Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant, speaker, and writer helping high achievers accomplish meaningful goals through his probability hacking framework. He’s been featured in top publications and is the author of Success Is a Numbers Game: Achieve Bigger Goals by Changing the Odds.

Key Takeaways

• Probability over Mindset: Success isn’t just about positivity—it’s about improving your odds.
• Probability Hacking Framework: Define goals, identify prerequisites, anticipate what could go wrong, and solve creatively.
• Success Diagrams: Visual tools to map out and de-risk goal pathways.
• Multiplying Probabilities: Understand true odds by combining variables—not averaging them.
• Resilience & Repetition: Trying multiple times can dramatically increase your likelihood of success.
• Mindset Shift: Think negative—not to be pessimistic, but to preemptively solve issues.

Notable Moments (Time‑Stamped)

• 00:01 – Introduction of Kyle Austin Young and today’s topic
• 00:59 – Odds vs. mindset in goal-setting
• 04:15 – Kyle’s story of landing a high-stakes job at age 21
• 07:04 – Breakdown of the success diagram framework
• 09:19 – Why averaging leads to false confidence
• 11:57 – Miracle on Ice and the math of multiple attempts
• 14:32 – Getting started with probability thinking
• 15:41 – The four paths to success explained
• 17:47 – Edison and the role of experimentation in resilience
• 19:54 – Where to find Kyle and his book

Quotes

“What’s going to have to go right? And what could go wrong? That’s where your opportunity to change the odds lives.” — Kyle Austin Young

“Success is really about identifying what could derail you and finding creative ways to make those outcomes less likely.” — Kyle Austin Young

Connect with Kyle Austin Young

Resource Library Page